Thursday, January 18, 2018

Concentration Or Diversification?

As per Simple Investor SG Facebook Page, we had a very successful "Face to Face, Ask Us Anything" 1st session! We will definitely continue with this kind of event and we hope to see more participants coming for next few sessions!


1 particular topic that day really impacted me and that is "Concentration or Diversification"?

Simple Investor SG keeps only a handful of counters in his portfolio, while I currently hold about 25 counters in my portfolio.

He always explains that he only invest in the top few companies that he determines. The quote he always use is "It is diworsification. Why bother with 7th best or the 8th best company, when you already knew which is your top company?"

He tends to dig deep and find out as much as possible about the company prior to investing. Thus, he will only invest once he determines it is one of the best.

I totally understand and believe in this theory. I had been wanting to do it, at least try to hold on to 15 to 20 counters only. But this require really a lot of conviction in the company that you choose to invest in, and you must also know the company inside-out.

Nevertheless, comparing his returns and mine, I believe this is something I need to learn and practice in 2018 if I really intend to achieve my 30% portfolio gain target at the end of the year.

If you are interested to come for our next Ask-Us-Anything event, do email me and let me know. 

Otherwise if you are more interested about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis Scorecard, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! 

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote

Monday, January 15, 2018

What Had I Been Up To?

Firstly, before I start, it will be good to inform everyone again on our Face-to Face Ask-Us-Anything session on 16 Jan 2018. Details of the event are listed in this post. If you are interested to come, just come along that evening.


So What Had I Done Since The Last Post?

Although I have said in my 1st post of 2018 that I felt the market is boring, but at this point, I had already made A LOT OF PURCHASES. As stated in the same post, I ventured actively into the US and HK Market.

In addition, I had also tweaked some of my thoughts about the SG market and made some purchases. This came about after I decided I was STILL holding too much cash after venturing overseas (I had about 40% to 50% of my portfolio).

In this case, I decided to make some short term investment into companies that are getting into certain "situations". This was not what I planned at the start of the year and I was taking more risk investing in these companies.

However, I see the taking of such higher risk as a substitute to my initial thoughts to cryptocurrency. I had wanted to invest a small sum into cryptocurrency at the start of the year. But, the verification process put me off. Thus, I decided to go ahead with these "higher-calculated-risk" investment instead, as I am more comfortable with this kind of risk-taking.

The Additional Touch To My Strategy

Other than the above, my strategy has also changed as the 3 markets (HK, USA and SG) continued to hit new highs.

I tried to invest in counters that people had stopped talking about. Or people hated. Or analyst had stopped covering about it. Since no one cares about it, then I can safely assume the bottom may have reached.

This was basically my Contrarian Self acting up.

It was like my left brain telling me to invest fundamentally. However, when it doesn't work out, my right brain will gain dominance and start telling me to proceed with contrarian investing instead.

Picture Taken From Livescience.com
To recap - Contrarian Investing is my own belief in that I had to be different to make more gains than others. If everyone invest in a similar way, it will be hard to find good counters as everyone will invest in the same counter looking at the same price.

So....Can You Please Tell Us The Counters Now?

Okay... here we go!

HK Market

1. Vital Mobile Holdings Limited - Although many experts do not agree with me, but I tried cigar butt investing via this counter.

2. Goldpac Group Limited - If you want to know more about this counter, please read this post by Stock Sniper blog's Hunting For Value. He wrote various articles about this counter and provided a lot of information.

US Market

1. Quarterhill Inc. - This seems to be the only low PE and PB counter within the US Market. Or at least one that I will invest in.

SG Market

1. ABF SG Bond Index Fund ETF - Like I stated in my last post, I wanted to invest some cash into the bond market and I decided on this ETF when it dropped significantly recently. The drop in this ETF is normal as some of the bonds had matured. If you looked at the 10 year chart, the drop is a trend at the start of every year.

2. Ellipsiz Ltd - Cash is king!

3. M1 Limited - Yes. You can call me an idiot for buying this counter after selling all of them in Sep 2017.

4. CWX Global Limited - This investment is a maths question. Firstly, 2 new shareholders had exchange 331,653,000 shares at 1.6 cents and 76,628,352 shares at 1.3 cents by pumping in S$6.2 million. Rights issue will also add another 1,950,009,035 shares at 0.9 cents, which will be equivalent to S$17.55 Million. The free warrants will be ignored since their exercise price is 1.5 cents.

Do note that there are currently 1,526,527,683 existing shares. The latest equity amounted to estimated S$48.47 million. By adding all the additional cash and the equity, and divided them by total number of shares (new and old shares), the NAV will be about 1.8 cent per share.

The current share price is about 0.9 cents, which translate to Price to Book ratio of 0.5x. I believe with the new shareholders, warrants exercise price and recovering oil price will eventually push the share price up in the near future.

That's all!

If you like me to elaborate about any of the investment above (Other than Goldpac Group Limited, ABF SG Bond Index Fund ETF and CWX Global Limited), do comment below or on my TUB Investing Facebook Page or on my InvestingNote thread.

Monday, January 8, 2018

My Strategy On Buying Of Bonds

Updated: As pointed out by other readers, we can also choose to invest in ABF SG Bond ETF. It is an ETF bond fund in Singapore. It tracks a basket of high-quality bonds issued primarily by the Singapore government and quasi-Singapore government entities.

This is a request from my reader/subscriber of Fundamental Scorecard website.

She wanted to diversify into bonds. But she has not much idea about bonds other than Singapore Saving Bonds (SSB).

To clarify, my knowledge on bonds are very shallow. Pardon me if I made any mistake in writing of this article. Feel free to comment on any mistake I wrote in the comments below.

For me, I seem to have a similar issue with my reader. My portfolio consist of about 40% to 50% cash at the start of 2018 (After restarting my portfolio and selling various counters at the end of 2017) and I wanted to find another way to diversify. This is because I felt the equities market is slightly too bullish for my current liking.

If you want to understand more about SSB, Singapore GovernmentSecurities (SGS) and Treasury bills (T-bills), you can read about them through the write ups by Dr Wealth in the links attached.

SSB, in my opinion, is like a 10 year fixed deposit with a step up interest rate that you can withdraw at any point in time. But when you withdraw, cash will only be received the following month and interest earned will be pro-rated.

On the other hand SGS and T-Bills is more like a commercial bond that is subject to market conditions – in this case, the Singapore economy – and it can be purchased within SGX.

There are also many companies’ bonds sold within SGX, and these are subject to market conditions as well as how the companies are doing.

For this write up, I will not be going into detail of how to buy and sell bonds. Rather, I will be talking about what I believe could affect the bonds market and what kind of strategy I will take.

Factors that could affect the Bond Market:

Point 1 – Coupon Rate

Coupon Rate is the interest rate of each bond. It is normally fixed throughout the tender. In equities, this is similar to dividend yield. But dividend yield is not fixed.

Point 2 – Interest Rate and Bond Price.

There is always an inverse relationship between interest rate and bond price.

Let me quote an article by Forbes: “...To explain the relationship between bond prices and bond yields, let's use an example. First, let's disregard today's artificially-induced interest rate environment and assume you've just purchased a bond with a maturity of five years, a coupon of 5.0%, and you bought it at par (i.e.; 100%), investing $1,000. At this point, your bond is worth exactly what you paid for it, no more and no less. Also, just to be clear, you will receive annual interest of $50 ($1,000 x 5.0% = $50), plus a return of your principal at maturity. However, the market value of your bond will fluctuate after your purchase as interest rates rise or fall. Let's assume that interest rates rise. In fact, let's assume they rise to 7.0%. Because new bonds are now being issued with a 7.0% coupon, your bond, which has a 5.0% coupon, is not worth as much as it was when you bought it. Why? If investors can invest the same $1,000 and purchase a bond that pays a higher interest rate, why would they pay $1,000 for your lower-interest bond? In this case, the value of your bond would be less than $1,000. Hence, your bond would be trading at a discount. Conversely, if interest rates were to fall after your purchase, the value of your bond would rise because investors cannot buy a new issue bond with a coupon as high as yours. In this case, your bond would be worth more than $1,000…”

Point 3 – Bonds Prices’ Par Value

There is a need to understand what the issued price of the bonds is (which is the par value). This is because this will also be the amount of cash you will get back when the bond matures. For SGS, it is normally based back to $100. For companies’ bond price, it should be $1.

Point 4 – Bonds Prices Are Affected by the Underlying Country’s Economy/Companies’ Outlook

Regardless of the coupon rate, bonds prices are also affected by the underlying countries’/companies’ outlook.

A look at the top 20 Bonds counters below: 

Taken from SGX as of 8 Jan 2018
Companies, such as KrisEnergy and Hyflux, whose bonds have fallen below the par value due to their current business outlook and the market has punished them despite a high coupon rate.

Point 5 – Bond Holders has the priority over Equity Holders

In the event a company wind up, a bond holder has the right to their cash prior to equity investor. Thus, bonds is deem as a safer product than equity investment.

Point 6 – T&C of a Bond Can Be Amended

This basically relates more towards companies’ bond. However, this does not meant that a company can just anyhow change its bond’s T&C as and when they like.

But during the oil and gas crisis, when many of the companies couldn’t pay their bonds holders, these companies will hold meetings with the bond holders to ask to waive certain conditions or to allow extension of the bonds.

Upon the approval from the bondholders, the company will then proceed to make the following changes to the bonds T&C.

My Strategy

Do note that I am diversifying into bonds, mainly because of my huge cash holdings and the bullish stock market. My main objective is to earn a bit of return while keeping the bulk of my cash free from any significant risk taking. Do note of my following criteria:

1. Short Term Holding

My holding of these bonds are not meant to be a long term investment (over and above 1 year). I intend to get back these cash in a few months’ time (within 2 to 3 months) and invest them into the equities market again.

2. Interest Rate Set to Increase in 2018

Interest rate will also definitely increase in 2018 unless Fed changes their mind. Therefore, do note that bond prices tend to fall in the long run.

3. Ignore All Companies’ Bond

I also tend to ignore the companies’ bond market. This is because based on the top 20 bonds listing on SGX as per the picture above, it seems that established firms will only provide a lower coupon rate, which could potentially be the same as the fixed deposit rate in the long term IF the interest rate continue to rise.

Furthermore, for companies with bond prices at below 1, it seems that it might be better to buy their respective equity since you are already taking the risk in investing in the company. The return on investment will be higher with the same amount of cash invested (Assuming the current share price is lower than the bond price in SGX).

Conclusion

With the above criteria established, I will be considering buying SGS with bond prices set below $100 that will be matured soon. In addition, I have already invested a part of my cash holdings in SSB prior to writing this article.

I hope this satisfy my reader’s question! In addition, if I have stated any information wrongly in this write up, please feel free to comment about it!

If you still have more questions, free feel to come for our first Face-to-Face Ask Us Anything session on 16 January 2018. SimpleInvestor SG and I will answer any of the questions you have on investment or our Fundamental Scorecard website.

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Saturday, January 6, 2018

Our 1st Meet and Greet "Ask Us Anything" Event

Dear Readers and Subscribers,

This year, Simple Investor SG (aka Simple) and I will start with something different.

We will be organizing a FREE face to face "Ask Us Anything" event!

Yes, you heard that this is a free event! This will be similar to Youtubers' meet and greet event - you will meet us and you can ask us anything!

Background on Simple and I

Simple and I partnered to create the Fundamental Scorecard website. It is basically a website that portray our investment methods into 2 different scorecard methods (Full Analysis from Simple Investor SG and Ultimate Scorecard from me). A scorecard method can be considered as a mechanical/systematic way of investing, where your consideration is based on facts and numbers, while your emotions and bias are put aside.

Through these methods, Simple and I had more wins than losses and we believe that anyone who follow these methods will be able to attain similar results! Retail investors can subscribe to each of the scorecard database and get access to our methods, as well as the listing of counters that passed the respective scorecards.

It is our goal to spread the knowledge of fundamental investing to everyday average retail investors. 

Oh... and you can check out Simple's interview here!

Why a Face to Face "Ask Us Anything" Event?

Firstly, readers will know they can message me via my Facebook page. They can also find us on InvestingNote. Some of you even have my direct contact number.

You can also ask us any questions via our Fundamental Scorecard website email.

BUT at times, we realized some questions can only be asked and answered when you are face to face with the person. It is the most ancient, direct, personal and simplest way of communication.

Thus, we decide to put ourselves out there for you to "bombard" us with questions!

Here are the Event Details:

Date: 16 January 2017, Tuesday
Time: 7.30pm to 9.00pm
Location: Outside seating area of The Kitchen (Food Court at The Star Vista)

The Kitchen at The Star Vista
Yes, it is at the food court of The Star Vista. The seating area outside is very big and open. You will be able to find us there. We will have our Fundamental Scorecard logo there as well!

We will be outside at the area highlighted in Orange.

Our Logo

If you are interested in the event, just email me (Not the fundamental scorecard website email, this is my own email) that you are interested to attend and I will reply you with my contact number, in case you can't find us that day! Even if you intend to come at the last minute, feel free to approach us that day as well!

We look forward to meeting you!

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

1st Post For 2018

This is my first post for 2018 and I have a confession to make.

I am rather bored looking at the Singapore market. I just feel that there are no value left. Many of the investors may differ from how I feel. But somehow in my head, I hope this bull stops running for a while.

In the meanwhile, I am also worried looking at the US markets hitting new highs everyday. In my head, I am bored and worried at the same time.


This could also be the consequences of restarting my portfolio and holding over 50% cash right now (Injected more cash into the portfolio since it restarted).

Thus, I started looking more at the US and Hong Kong markets.

Looking at these markets, which I am still not so familiar with, could also be a consequence of setting my target too high (Recap: 30%!)

As B stated in one of the comments on my Facebook Page post, setting such a high target may result in me taking unnecessary risks.


Nevertheless, within the spectrum of investing, I always felt that if I do not know enough, then I should go and find out about it. At least, I have a 1 year experience in investing in these 2 markets, right?
 

For the next few articles, I will most probably write about a few of the overseas counter that I bought recently, unless something interesting springs up!


If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote