Tuesday, October 4, 2016

My Plan Has Change...

The economy is sick.

Currently, it seems like no “bad” news is good news.

When Fed didn't increase the interest rate, the market seem to be in a sudden boom.

When oil price rise a bit, we become so happy and it seems like oil has rise to $80 again.

When oil price drop a bit, we become so scared.

But when a big firm, such as Hanjin or Deutsche Bank came out with major bad news, the whole world shakes in fear for A WHILE only. For we believe the governments will come to their aid.

What happens if there is no aid? Does the current share prices seem valid?

No longer are there any announcement of big projects that cause the share price to move.

Share price movement are influenced drastically by analyst nowadays. The effect will be sudden pump and dump. We are like drug addicts. We are addicted to analyst reports. Without any analyst report, no one dares to buy or invest.

Oh… and I can hardly find any good stocks.

Good stocks that consistently earn profits, give consistent dividend and has a strong balance sheet are being “discovered”, while others are getting delisted.

Yes, you can say I am too pessimistic.

But for someone that works "near the front line", I do not see the economy recovering in the near future.

My gut feeling is that the economy is still very weak and it will continue to last till 2017.

So I am changing my views and plan.

To survive through this period, my plan moving forward will be:

  • Ignore Deep Value Investing
I decided to forgo deep value stock investing. This is because I figured that if an apocalypse is to happen in the stock market “again”, deep value stock will naturally emerge.


I will be super focus on finding stocks that can pass the Enhanced Triple S Scorecard with Dividend Scorecard Portion. This is after almost 1.5 years of using and improving the scorecards. I realized stocks that pass these scorecards have their merits.

Even when their share price fall drastically, the initial view will help you endure through the hard times (This will only happen if you believe in the scorecard and understand it).

  • A portfolio of Blue Chips, REITs and stocks that passed my scorecards will give me better return.

This information was always in front of me. But I choose to ignore them. So now, I will also start to focus more on Blue Chips and REITs.

I have always ignore REITs because I believe they are constantly overpriced. But now, I realise the benefits of having them in your portfolio. It calms your mind whenever you receive the dividend from them every quarter.
Furthermore, their business model is easy to understand. Some REITs’ share price are currently in their 3 year to 5 year low due to rights issue or other “noises”. This creates an opportunity for me to jump in – and that's after understanding the reasons behind the low share prices. Obviously, if the low share prices is a result of bad situation, I will continue to ignore them.

As for Blue Chips, it's a love and hate relationship. I always deem them for short term trading due to their volatility in their prices. BUT after the significant drop in Aug/Sep 2015 and Jan 2016, there are actually some Blue Chips that has yet to recover. As usual, I will buy if I deem them to be of "value stock" at that time.

So its time to go hunting…


Therefore, for those who are also interested in finding quality value stock that can produce at least 5% dividend yield or to learn about the Enhanced Triple S Scorecard and the Dividend Scorecard Portion, you can come to the next Sharing Session with T.U.B! If you are interested to attend, do not hesitate to contact me directly.

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page - T.U.B Investing.

2 comments:

  1. The only STI stock that I think is volatile, even for America markets, is Hongkongland.

    I still think value investing is relevant in any kind of market sentiment, but more so in bad and volatile times like now.

    I don't know what deep value investing means to you... perhaps you are referring to distress or turnaround stocks. But the approach and attitude should hold-- think of the risk before the rewards.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Boon Song,

      Thank you for stopping by and commenting.

      Just like to clarify, my volatile meant that it rises and drops quite significantly every time. For example, DBS can range from 15.36 to 15.45 in a day. Easier to play trade and contra. But high risk.

      As for me, deep value investing is a but different from value investing. It meant more of distress or turnaround stocks.

      I am still into value investing - just that its in my own way only.

      Regards,
      TUB

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