Thursday, October 19, 2017

Life After Getting Your Own House

I just started to live in my new house for a few days. And what follows was unpredictable.

Housework, cleaning, buying stuff, cooking, arranging for rectification, putting mahjong paper and then it repeats.

I no longer have any time for reading and much less for blogging. Over the last few days, I only looked at the stock market for about 10 to 15 mins each day.

Then one day, Simple Investor SG messaged me "Market drop suddenly".

Although I do not have enough time, but I still looked at the market for 5 seconds. Then I saw the STI at 3,334.91. I replied Simple Investor SG, "inform me only if STI was at 3000". Then I went back to my housework.

It is only on a afterthought that I realised why did I have this "super heck care" attitude?

There are a lot of reasons behind it.

1. Experience - I guess having been through a few number of hiccups, I don't think a minor correction will affect me. Furthermore, I have already allocated a percentage of cash that to reinvest in the market.

2. Already In-The-Money - As per my latest portfolio update, I am already on a 14% gain this year. Thus, I have more buffer for my portfolio to fall if necessary.

3. Ultimate Scorecard - I have a number of counters that has passed the Ultimate Scorecard. Thus, this kept me calm even in the mist of correction. The reason is because I know that for a counter to pass the scorecard it must have a certain number of abilities. Furthermore, if required, I can also keep the counter for a longer period.

In short, I believe my limited time in future must be used more effectively. Therefore, there will be more usage of fundamental scorecard website, less analysis of individual counter.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do click on this LINK to sign up for our 2nd Value/Growth Investing Workshop!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Friday, October 13, 2017

Our 2nd Value/Growth Investing Workshop

Building on the success from our 1st Value/Growth Investing Workshop, Simple Investor and I will be conducting our 2nd Value/Growth Investing Workshop on the 3rd November 2017.


You can read about our 1st Value/Growth Investing Workshop from these bloggers whom came for it.

Write up by Brian of 3F:

Write up by Christopher of Growing Your Tree of Prosperity:

Write up by Richard of Invest Openly:

In additional to their feedback, we have also gotten other feedback from the participants. And so we will be presenting the investing workshop a bit differently this time and we believe it will be BETTER than the 1st Value/Growth Investing Workshop.

Rather than quantitative, it will be more qualitative. Be it newbie, or experience investors, I believe you will definitely gain something.

Furthermore, my friend, Poh Lin, will be sharing another useful topic on insurance that day. Do come if you are interested.

The details of this investing workshop is as follows: -

Date: 3 November 2017, Friday
Time: 7.00pm to 9.30pm
Location: International Plaza, 10 Anson Rd, #36-05A, Singapore 079903
Price: $20 

We will also be showing our valued website, Fundamental Scorecard, that day and explain on how the website assist us on our investment decision on a regular basis.

If you are interested in this workshop, do click on this LINK to purchase the tickets.

For those who had already purchase the tickets, thank you for your support!

We looked forward to your participation!

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Another Unique Method - Bottom Fishing

How should a regular retail investor hedge against a raging bull run? If you feel the market is going to turn and you don’t want to SHORT, what can you do?

I am generally a LONG only investor managing a very low 6 digit portfolio figure. I don’t SHORT and I also don’t know how to short.

I have the belief that Mr Market is slightly overheated. However, even if I think it will crash, I still believe in staying vested rather than timing the market. This is because over the long term, I DON'T KNOW WHEN MR MARKET WILL CRASH.

(The joke is on me. I always felt that 2017 will crash, but look at how fast it has rise! Lucky, I continue to stay vested.)

I have the opinion that there are many other retail investors out there with the same thoughts. So I hope sharing of this method will enlighten them.

Do note that I have spoken about this method before in this post before. But since the bull run have been very strong, I like to emphasize on this method again.

I call this method “Bottom Fishing”.


1) Find Counters at 52 weeks Low Share Price

Basically it meant that you invest in the counters that are at their 52 weeks low share price, coupled with a variance of up to 5%.

This is also based on the assumption that for a counter to hit its 52 weeks low share price, it is already at a very low price. In the event Mr. Market decide to crash, the counter may not fall as much as compared to other counters.

Furthermore, the 5% variance is for the investors to have more selection.

2) Check the 52 weeks Low Share Price Against Share Price Over The Last 3 to 5 Years 

After finding a list of counters at 52 weeks low share price, the next thing I normally do is to check the general trend of the share price for the counter over the last 3 to 5 years.

If the current share price is also close to the lowest share price over the last 3 to 5 years, then I believe that in the event Mr Market crashes, the counter will fall even lesser than expected.

3) Find Out the Reason/s Why The Counter is at 52 weeks Low Share Price

For the 3rd step, it is important to understand and evaluate the reason or reasons that caused the counter to fall to its 52 weeks low share price. Thus, you will need to read up on the counter as much as possible to understand why the share price has fallen so much.

At this point if you are uncomfortable with the counter, MOVE ON.

4) Check For Any Possible Catalyst Or If The Counter is Fundamentally Strong

Once you understand why the share price has fallen to its 52 weeks low share price, you should also check whether if there is any form of catalyst for the share price to rise back in the short term. If not, do also find out if the counter is fundamentally strong (I normally uses the Ultimate scorecard to check on its fundamentals).

It is only after you have done with all the checks, and you are satisfied with the answers, then you can buy the counter.

I personally believe in this method and I did that once with the REITs (Read here).

In a way, this method works better for REITs because of the following:
  • Its share price is generally range bound unless it did some right issues or its tenant cannot pay.
  • In addition to the low share price for the REIT counter, the dividend yield provided more “buffer” if the share price continue to falls. For example, if the dividend yield is 5%, that means your counter will be able to fall 5% more since the drop in share price can be covered by the dividend.
  • Finally, for REITs, its business model is rather stable. Their revenue is rather predictable and their balance sheet is reasonably strong due to their huge fixed assets. I believe there is also a guideline on the amount of debt a REIT can take on. Thus, this limited the debt a REIT can take on if it becomes too aggressive.
Therefore, if you also have the belief that the market is slightly overheated and you want to take some precaution, you can also try out this method.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

A Matter of Questionable Management

Singhaiyi Holdings Ltd (Singhaiyi) was a great call previously by me. I average upwards when it announces an exceptional Q1 2017.

However, its recent purchase of Sun Rosier is a bit hard to accept. There were explanations that their purchase price was too high. Nevertheless, I decided to hold on to them as I believe the management may have a different view.

But I realized Singhaiyi missed out reporting that it was awarded a public tender of a string of commercial units from OKH Global Ltd (OKH) when they were the only bidder.

Announcement made by OKH on 11 Jul 2017
No announcement by Singhaiyi on 11 Jul 2017
For those that do not know, Singhaiyi and OKH technically are owned by the same parent company - Haiyi Holdings Pte Ltd. 

This meant that this was actually a related party deal. From my experience, I doubt any related party deal will be fair to the minority shareholders. Furthermore, not announcing the "award" makes it looks like Singhaiyi maybe on the losing end.

To justify the deal, I tried looking into the announcement. But more questions follows.

For the information above, without knowing the size of the property, how will I know the current market value stated in the report are reasonable? 

Although there are ways to check the property size (like reading pass annual reports), but I just felt there was no need to. It just seems to me the management just wanted to hide some fact.

In addition, the following section gave me the facts to finalized my thoughts:


Seriously?!?! 1 BID!?! 

In Short

The purchase of Sun Rosier had already made me felt Singhaiyi will not be sharing the gains with us - the minority shareholders. Coupled with the lack of announcement of winning the public tender, these actions just made me uncomfortable holding onto this counter.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that the company may still have a good financial year 2017 due to the initial gains in Q1 2017. 

But I just had too many questions about how Singhaiyi is being managed. Thus, I decided to just sell off all my holdings.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

This Counter Flew Up Into The Sky!

Sometimes Mr Market screw you up, sometimes Mr Market give you surprises!

Ocean Sky International Ltd (Ocean Sky) was a counter I bought on 31 Jan 2017. It is a micro-penny counter that went under a structure change at the end of last year. They change their business from manufacturing clothing to becoming a construction company.

I was a bit disappointed when Ocean Sky released its full year results for 2016 on 1st March 2017. Its net profit was boosted by “other income” – recognition of fair value gain on investment property in Cambodia, and its balance sheet has significant “goodwill”. In my opinion, these are just “air” fundamentally.

Nevertheless, I kept holding on to it because I believe the company will need to drive the share price up with business activities. Furthermore, this counter is rather illiquid. Share price move up and down significantly, but only due to small volume.

However, I realized the company started to announce the purchase of properties to develop since April 2017.

It started with a proposed shop house development project in Cambodia, then followed by a purchase of a GCB for redevelopment and then came 2 major announcements – the collaboration with Tiong Seng Holdings Ltd (Tiong Seng) on the redevelopment of the 2 sites at Jervious Road and the redevelopment of Sloane Court.

However, even after the news of the collaboration with Tiong Seng came up, nothing much happened to Ocean Sky share price.

It was at this time that I kept accumulating on Ocean Sky counter, even though I also have Tiong Seng.

Then on 27 Sep 2017 late night, Ocean Sky made the announcement of proposed disposal of the investment property in Cambodia.

On 28 Sep 2017 morning, the share price suddenly ROCKETED. It increased 65% within 1 day!



So what will happen to my Ocean Sky holdings?

Although I am VERY TEMPTED to just sell all my holdings, but I only sold down 45% of them. Right now, my average share price is about $0.058 (Yes, accumulation of an illiquid counter is very hard, that is why its not a very low price).

For the rest of my holdings, I will try to wait for the next quarterly financials to be announced around 14 November 2017 before deciding on what to do later.

Nevertheless, for those intending to enter at the high share price now, be prepared for the long winter.

Because when the news of the disposal of the investment property fizzle down, the counter may become illiquid again. The share price may most probably drop again and the next catalyst may only be from the collaboration's developments announcing its TOP many years later.

In addition, there is always the risk of the deal of the disposal of the investment property in Cambodia falling through.  

So if you want to buy now, do think carefully. It is not that this counter do not have any fundamentals, it is just that you must have the ability to hold FOR A LONG TIME.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.